Permutations | What do we need against Elfsborg?

After tonight's clash with Elfsborg in the UEFA Europa League league phase, we will know our fate for the next round of the competition.

Already assured of progression in the competition after last week's win at Hoffenheim, tonight's final league phase game - the visit of Swedish side Elfsborg to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - will now be pivotal in deciding whether we advance automatically to March's round of 16 or face February's knockout stage play-offs.

So, here is a look at what each result would mean for us in the context of our next step in the UEFA Europa League.

Europa League phase ranking criteria

If teams are level on points in the table, it is via the following criteria that the teams' rankings will be determined. For selected criteria, we have listed our current value of each as well as how that currently ranks compared to the teams in the top 15 (in brackets).

1. Superior goal difference in the league phase - Current Spurs value | +5 (6th)

2. Higher number of goals scored in the league phase - Current Spurs value | 14 (4th)

3. Higher number of away goals scored in the league phase - Current Spurs value | 8 (2th)

4. Higher number of wins in the league phase - Current Spurs value | 4 (4th)

5. Higher number of away wins in the league phase - Current Spurs value | 2 (2th)

6. Higher number of points obtained collectively by league phase opponents - Current Spurs value | 72 (4th)

7. Superior collective goal difference of league phase opponents - Current Spurs value | -6

8. Higher number of goals scored collectively by league phase opponents - Current Spurs value | 83

9. Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all league phase matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points) - Current Spurs value | 15

10. Higher club coefficient - Current Spurs value | 48 (11th/36)

A Spurs win

If we are victorious tonight against Elfsborg, we will move to 17 points, securing a spot in the top eight of the league phase and, therefore, automatic progression to March's round of 16.

Currently sitting in sixth in the rankings, a win could see us finish as high as second and see us paired with Lazio as the highest seeds, however that would require a number of other results (Games involving Eintracht Frankfurt, Athletic Bilbao, Manchester United and Lyon) going our way.

With a victory, the lowest we could finish would be eighth, and that would also still be enough to seal a spot in the round of 16.

A Spurs draw

With a draw, we would move onto 15 points which could be enough to seal a place in the top eight, but we would be reliant on other results going our way.

Currently, there are six teams below us in the league that could at least match, if not surpass, that tally of 15 points. They are Anderlecht, Steaua Bucharest, Galatasaray, Bodo/Glimt, Viktoria Plzen and Olympiacos.

Given we are currently sixth, if three or more of those teams surpassed 15 points or matched it and outranked us based on the league phase ranking criteria (as listed above), we would take a spot in the knockout play-off round.

A Spurs defeat 

If we were to lose to Elfsborg tonight, we could still secure a place in the top eight, but we would most certainly be reliant on other results going our way.

In the event of defeat, there are nine team that could at least match or even surpass our current tally of 14 points. Along with the six sides mentioned above in the Spurs draw section, Rangers, AZ Alkmaar and Union SG are also able to match our current points total.

Again, given that we are sixth, if three or more of those teams surpassed 14 points or matched it and outranked us based on the league phase ranking criteria (as listed above), we would take a spot in the knockout play-off round.

The lowest we could finish would be 14th given that both Rangers and Union SG face each other tonight and both would require a win to catch us.

The match preview

Tonight's fixtures of note

Here is a list of the fixtures in the Europa League that could have a bearing on our position in the final standings. All matches kick-off at 8pm (UK).

Italicised are the teams to keep an eye on. Their current rankings in the league phase table (in brackets) are also listed below...

AS Roma (21) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (2)

Athletic Bilbao (3) vs Viktoria Plzen (11)

FCSB (8) vs Manchester United (4)

Lyon (6) vs Ludogorets (33)

Anderlecht (7) vs Hoffenheim (28)

Ajax (16) vs Galatasaray (13)

Nice (35) vs Bodo/Glimt (13)

Olympiacos (12) vs Qarabag (34)

Rangers (13) vs Union SG (15)

Ferencvaros (22) vs AZ Alkmaar (14)