Notebook – Aston Villa v Spurs

We face the test of Aston Villa as we roll onto Matchday 31 in the Premier League this evening (5.30pm kick-off).

Here in the Notebook, take a look at the game’s key points of note…

1 - Holding onto fourth

With just eight games of the Premier League season to go, there is a so much riding on our performances and results – most namely, a potential return to the UEFA Champions League. Having qualified for European football’s elite club competition in four consecutive seasons between 2016 and 2019, we have missed out on a place on that stage in the two campaigns since. With our 5-1 victory over Newcastle United last Sunday though, and our recent upturn in form, we moved into the competition's qualification places for the first time since September and have now given ourselves a real chance of realising our goal.

However, with just five points separating us, Arsenal (fifth), West Ham (sixth), Manchester United (seventh) and Wolves (eighth), there is significant competition for a top four spot, and this is undoubtedly a fight that will go down to the wire. If we wish to remain in the driving seat for a Champions League place this weekend,  a win and all three points at Villa Park will be crucial.

2 - Villa Park victories

Villa Park, though, is a place we have enjoyed our visits to over the last 14 years as we haven’t lost there since New Year’s Day in 2008. In our 11 visits to Aston Villa’s famous home since that defeat in 2008, we have won on nine occasions, drawing the other two - that run includes victories in each of our last seven trips to Birmingham. Across those seven consecutive wins, we have scored 14 goals - an average of two goals per game - while we have conceded just three goals, keeping five cleans sheets along the way. And it includes picking up all three points and a clean sheet there on our last visit.

3 - Our last Villa Park trip

Back in March, 2021, we overcame the Villans at Villa Park with a comfortable 2-0 win. Despite arriving in Aston on the back of some disappointing results, we produced a dominant performance against the men in claret and blue. Carlos Vinicius both opened the scoring and his Premier League account as he tapped home Lucas Moura’s cut-back on 29 minutes. Harry Kane then sealed all three points on 68 minutes as, after being brought down in the box by Matty Cash, we were awarded a penalty and he dusted himself down before firing home from the spot.

4 - Home troubles for Villans

For Aston Villa though, they have seemingly struggled at Villa Park this season. Having won just two of their opening five home games of the Premier League season under Dean Smith, the Villans turned to Steven Gerrard, who quickly saw a turnaround in form as they won two of their next three games on their own patch. However, since that promising opening run, they have won just one of their last six home outings and were beaten there last time out by Arsenal.

5 - April showers

The month of April has also been a troublesome period for Aston Villa in the past. In their last 30 games played out in April, they have won just four times (D9 L17). In their last 11 matches in the month, they have lost nine times and won just once - that was a 3-1 home victory over relegation-threatened Fulham in 2021.

6 - A run of different scorers

Already this season, we have remarked on our extraordinary run of different goalscorers in matches against Wolves – and that same phenomena has been occurring in recent meetings with Aston Villa.

In our clashes with Wolverhampton Wanderers since December, 2019, each of our last eight goals against them all come via different players (Lucas Moura, Jan Vertonghen, Steven Bergwijn, Serge Aurier, Tanguy Ndombele, Harry Kane, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Dele). And now, on the other side of the West Midlands, something similar is happening against Villa.

In our last four encounters with the Villans, each of our last five goals have all come via a different player. Beginning with our 3-2 win at Villa Park in February, 2020, Heung-Min Son kicked off the run with a last-minute winner. Our return there the following spring then saw Carlos Vinicius and Harry Kane on target in a 2-0 victory. While, in our last two encounters, which have both come in N17 and finished 2-1 with both sides taking a victory each, Steven Bergwijn and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (as well as an own goal) were on target for us.

7 - Hitting the target

And, based on our exploits in our last 19 meetings with Aston Villa, you wouldn't be surprised if more players added themselves to that list this evening. In a run stretching back to October, 2010, we have scored in 18 of our 19 encounters with the Villans, only failing to score when the sides met at White Hart Lane in April, 2015 (a 1-0 defeat). Across those matches, we have found the back of the net on 42 occasions, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

8 - Goals aplenty

We also come into this game in a rich vein of goalscoring form – our best form in front of goal for 57 years to be precise. In our last six Premier League games, we have hit the target 21 times with at least four goals being scored in three of those matches (4-0 v Leeds, 5-0 v Everton and 5-1 v Newcastle). It’s the first time we have scored 21-plus goals in the space of six top-flight games since a run of 22 between April and September, 1965.

We have also scored 43 goals in the 20 matches since Antonio Conte became our Head Coach. In Premier League history, only two managers have seen their teams score more goals during their first 20 games in charge – Manuel Pellegrini at Manchester City in 2013 (57 goals) and Carlo Ancelotti at Chelsea in 2009 (45 goals).

9 - One could be enough

But, based on Aston Villa’s recent games, one goal might be enough for us to take victory today. This season, the Villans have lost 12 matches by just a single goal, which is more than any side in the competition. And that includes each of their last three matches as they come into this game on the back of three consecutive defeats.

10 - Security against the Villans

While we hold an impressive scoring record against Aston Villa, our recent defensive showings against them have also been strong. In our last 20 meetings with Villa in all competitions, we have managed to keep 11 cleans sheets and in only two of our encounters in that period have we conceded more than a single goal – our 3-2 win at Villa Park in February, 2020, and our 2-1 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in May, 2021.